A friend of mine has gotten his last three jobs through referrals. I used to think that sounded unusual. But the more I look at hiring today, the less surprising it feels.

Getting a job has always involved luck: the right opening at the right time, and someone deciding your resume deserves a closer look. What has changed is the noise around that decision. AI can tailor resumes, draft cover letters and outreach messages, and help people apply at a scale that would have seemed impossible a few years ago. LinkedIn has described roles receiving thousands of applications, partly because generative AI makes bulk applications easier. Gem's recruiting benchmarks also show how much application volume has grown.

Companies use technology to handle that volume too. Candidates use AI to get through the hiring system; employers use AI to screen the resulting applications. That is part of why real professional relationships may matter more now.

The problem is not that your resume is bad. There are just a lot of good resumes.

Imagine a hiring manager looking at hundreds of applications. Many candidates meet the requirements. Their resumes are clean, their experience sounds relevant, and their cover letters say the right things. Then a colleague sends a message: “I worked with this person before. They're good. Worth talking to.”

That candidate still has to interview and can still be rejected. A referral does not make them more qualified. But their name now has context attached.

Ashby analyzed more than 38 million applications across 93,000 jobs from 2021 through 2024. Referrals made up about 1% of applications, yet 40% of referred candidates reached an interview, versus 3% of inbound applicants. Among those interviewed, 16% of referred candidates reached an offer stage, compared with 6% of inbound applicants.

These are patterns across Ashby's customer data, not your personal odds of getting a job. People who receive referrals may already be better matched to a role, and a recommendation from someone who knows their work carries more information than a name on a form. Ashby also notes that inbound applications remain the largest source of hires overall. Cold applying still works.

Networking is more than asking for referrals

Many people find someone at a company they admire, send a connection request, and immediately ask for a referral. At some companies, an employee can refer someone they barely know. But clicking “Refer” in a portal is different from telling a hiring manager, “I've worked with this person, and I'd happily work with them again.”

The stronger goal is to know enough people, and let enough people know your work well enough, that some would genuinely feel comfortable recommending you. That takes longer than collecting referral links, but it is much harder to copy.

You do not need to know the CEO

A large randomized study involving more than 20 million LinkedIn users found that moderately weak ties were especially useful for job mobility. Your close friends often hear the same news you do. A former coworker, classmate, or person you met over coffee moves in a slightly different circle and may hear about an opening you would otherwise miss.

You do not need a senior executive at your dream company. A junior designer may know how their team actually hires. A former classmate may know a role is about to open. Many career-changing connections do not look important when they begin.

The best time to connect is before you urgently need a job

Suppose you meet someone doing work you hope to do one day. You have coffee, ask about what they are building, and share a project of your own. Nothing happens afterward, and that is fine. Months later, you send them something relevant to a conversation you had. Later still, their team starts hiring. Your name is familiar because there has been a real exchange, not because you sent a perfectly optimized message.

Networking becomes easier when every conversation does not carry an urgent request. Talk to people because their work interests you. Ask questions you actually want answered. Stay in touch occasionally, and help when you can. If a referral ever comes, it is a by-product of the relationship.

AI may make human relationships more valuable

A polished paragraph, tailored cover letter, and personalized-looking LinkedIn message have all become easier to produce. Trust has not. Someone has to spend time with you to learn how you think, whether you follow through, and whether they would be comfortable putting their reputation behind your name.

If everyone can apply ten times more often, merely increasing application volume may not create much advantage. Being known by a few real people does not guarantee a job either, but it can help a good candidate be seen.

So should you spend less time applying?

Probably not. If I were searching for a job, I would still apply to roles that fit. I would also make room for conversations with former coworkers, alumni, recruiters, founders, and people doing work I want to understand. If you have ten hours, eight might go toward finding strong roles, improving your work, and applying thoughtfully. Two could go toward reconnecting and meeting people. That is a starting point, not a formula.

Those conversations do not need to begin with “Can you get me a job?” Ask how someone entered their field, what surprised them about the role, or what their team is working on. Sometimes you learn something useful. Sometimes you make a friend. Occasionally, months later, someone remembers you when an opportunity appears.

The real advantage is being remembered

You do not need thousands of LinkedIn connections or an evening of networking events every week. You want a growing group of people who know who you are, understand what you are good at, and would be happy to talk again.

That is one of the ideas behind LunchME. Professional networking does not need more cold messages. The interesting part is what happens after two people actually meet and have enough context to remember each other.

Your next opportunity may come from a cold application, a recruiter, or someone you have not spoken with in two years. You cannot know which in advance. In a hiring market full of easily generated applications, a few genuine relationships are a meaningful advantage.